What happened
On October 18, Trump posted on Truth Social that signing "that document" now would drive Russia away from the bargaining table, and that he "can sign it later, or any time that I want!"[1] In the same post, he said Russia is doing "very little, if anything" to help Iran, and he wants to keep it that way[1]. He also blamed Zelenskyy's strikes on Russian diesel refineries, saying they are "seriously hurting the world diesel markets, including those in the United States."[1]
Why it matters
I think there's a plan between Trump and Putin behind the scenes. I don't have proof of collusion, and I'm not going to pretend I do. But the pieces point to a picture.
Here's one of those pieces, and it's my read, not settled fact. My understanding is that Trump signed the Graham sanctions bill, H.R. 5334, on September 18, 2026, and is choosing not to enforce it. His own post talks about signing "that document" later, which doesn't line up neatly with that. Either way, the coverage says Trump is waiving the Russia sanctions, and he says it's to keep Moscow at the table.
Why go this route? I think it's because Trump has no leverage over Putin. None. So he's applying maximum pressure where he can, on Zelenskyy and on Europe. Push the side that will listen, and hope they cave.
That has a cost. It's alienating the United States from its allies and undoing goodwill this country built over the last 100 years. Trust like that took generations to earn, and it doesn't come back fast.
Where it's headed
What the plan actually is, time will tell. Something is going on, and I'm confident about that much. The details I can't tell you yet.
Politically, I think this is a disaster for Trump heading into the midterms. We'll see what damage control he can pull off. But to me this mostly looks like desperation. A president with real leverage doesn't need to lean this hard on his own friends.
Putin made a bad decision invading Ukraine, and Trump is bailing him out.